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The implementation of the Affordable Care Act in the United States is creating massive shifts in reimbursement channels within patient populations. Manufacturers need to understand the potential impact these shifts will have on the top and bottom line—what channels are increasing or decreasing in terms of the number of patients, product revenue, or rebates—in order to guide their investment in resources in the various channels. To predict the channel dynamics that could result from the changes brought by healthcare reform, Campbell Alliance has developed a methodology to estimate the percent of a given disease population that will move from the uninsured channel to Public Exchanges, Medicaid, or the commercial channel as well as the percent moving from commercial to Medicaid and Public Exchanges as a result of the ACA. This article outlines the methodology and shows how it can be applied to a hypothetical brand.
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